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When managers ask for a forecast, they are really asking for a number, which involves the Flaw of Averages. For example, the product manager of the new microchip provided the correct forecast of average demand to his boss. But the boss turned around and used that single number to incorrectly forecast average pro t. Each of the ten programming managers gave their boss the correct average completion time of six months for their subroutines. But the boss used those single numbers to incorrectly forecast the completion of the entire software project. The product manager at the pharmaceutical rm gave the VP of operations the correct forecast for average demand. But the VP used that number to incorrectly forecast operating costs. In these cases, the bosses will ultimately claim that they got bad forecasts from their subordinates and will end up punishing them for providing what was in fact the correct average. This is indeed a problem of Dilbertian proportion. In his book, A Whole New Mind,9 author Daniel H. Pink predicts the ascendance in the economy of right-brained, big-picture thinking relative to left-brained analysis. The subjects of statistics and probability have traditionally been the domain of the left. But in fact, the Flaw of Averages often arises due to the left brain s stubborn insistence on a single precise answer. If anything, the right side of brain is better equipped to interpret the patterns inherent in uncertainty. In subsequent chapters I will discuss new technologies that are making these patterns visible to the naked eye, allowing the right brain to get back in the game.

source, the path connecting the output to the ground would give rise to a Rout of 0 Q as shown in Figure 1033b An approach to amend this problem could be to connect a resistor to the bulk node As shown in Figure 1033c, the output impedance would then consist of Cjbd in series with Rsubx Rout would therefore be equal to Rsubx Unfortunately, this reasoning is still fallacious Figure 1033d gives a more accurate representation of the transistor Besides Cjdb, the source-bulk junction capacitance (Cjsb) also exists at the bulk node The output impedance consists of Cjdb in series with a parallel combination of Rsubx and Cj b At high frequencies, Cjsb 1 bypasses the signal that would otherwise flow through Rubx,, reducing Rout from its low-frequency value of Rsubx toward 0 at high frequencies.

10 5

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The measurement, in contrast, reveals that Rout remains relatively constant with frequency Merely adding a substrate resistance to the bulk node of the transistor clearly does not lead to a good fit of S22 across all frequencies The thought process reflected above reveals the importance of inserting a resistance between Cjdb and Cjsb Without such a resistance, Cjsb always shunts the signal flow from the output to ground at high frequencies In the BSIM3 model (as well as many other models), Cjdb and Cjsb are hard-wired to the bulk node, not allowing for an addition of resistance between the two ends of the capacitors We get around this problem by declaring the transistor's junction areas and junction peripheries to be zero and thereby eliminate Cjdb and Cjsb in the transistor In return, semiconductor capacitances tantamount to Cjdb and Cjsb are declared externally.

You will notice that even the files that are on the CD-ROM for this book have a sequential part in their filename, in that they are preceded by the chapter number, and then followed by the descriptive section of the name. This obeys the rules that I have just described. The filename is really meant for the computer to be able to keep track of the file; it is not intended primarily for human reference. A description of the part is for people to read, and nothing is harmed if two parts have identical descriptions. Descriptions can be displayed in the assembly FeatureManager; in fact, they can be displayed instead of the filename.

This way, resistances (Rsub2 + Rsub3) can be inserted between the junction capacitances, as shown in Figure 1034a The basis of this model is made clear by the physical representation of the transistor shown in Figure 1034b In accordance with the.

1u = (b)

C db ,

This equation needs to be solved numerically; the results are given in Table 17.1 below. With Tcall = 5 min, the average wait-time is twait = Prwait 5 NC 0.5 nuser (17.5)

Some people, especially businesses that must upgrade a number of computers in order to run Microsoft Vista, are hesitant to install the first release of an operating system. Given the important role an OS plays in the operation of a computer, Microsoft surely recognizes this and would probably not release a product that is not ready to see the light of day. If you have doubts, you can always wait until a subsequent release, such as Service Pack 1, to make the jump.

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