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the troubles) witnessed a superlative amount of investment bank VaR exceptions Trading losses wildly exceeded the loss limits predicted by the model While VaR always allows for a few breaches (2 or 3 a year in the case of a 99 percent con dence level; about 12 a year in the case of 95 percent con dence levels), the third quarter of 2007 presented a heavily concentrated cluster of exceptions Some banks that report 99 percent VaR admitted to exceptions gures above 10 or even 15 And this in spite of the fact that VaR itself was naturally going up as the turbulence was enhanced and, crucially, that banks may have been conservatively reporting too high a VaR in the period preceding the crisis as a way to avoid bothersome regulatory nit-picking (under Basel capital rules, penalties can be imposed if the number of exceptions is eye-catchingly abundant).

This kind of processing really belongs in a Traffic Cop or Delegate controller When changes are made to the way this processing happens, the code in each of the JSPs that are written this way will have to be updated..

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One basic problem addressed by matched ltering is to decide whether a signal of a given form exists in the presence of noise. In the classical case, the lter is also constrained to be a LTI system. Matched lters are used in many other applications as well, such as pulse compression as discussed in the next section, and image reconstruction as discussed in Sections 17.8 17.10. Suppose the input consists of the deterministic signal x t plus noise N t . Let the corresponding outputs from the linear system used be x0 t and N0 t , respectively. This is shown in Figure 17.3. The criterion of optimality to be used to determine whether x t is present is the maximum SNR at the system output. It is shown below that the LTI lter that maximizes the SNR is the matched lter. If n0 t is assumed to be a sample function of a wide-sense stationary (WSS) process, the SNR at time T0 can be de ned as SNR The output signal x0 t is given by

in the 1970s and early 1980s, researchers used to pay considerably less attention to verbal cues to deception than to nonverbal cues to deception However, this has changed since the introduction of Criteria Based Content Analysis in the late 1980s, and Reality Monitoring in the 1990s, two verbal assessment tools that I will describe in s 8 and 9 I believe that police manuals, and people in general, tend to neglect paying attention to verbal cues to deception, because it is assumed that liars are able to control their speech well and therefore are unlikely to leak deception through their speech I think it is incorrect to assume that liars always control their speech well First, although people will be aware of what they are conveying, they may be less aware of their exact wording.

2.31 2.98 4.64

In all, Lehman Brothers revealed 3 exceptions at 95 percent; Goldman Sachs 5, also at 95 percent (with only one in the rst half of 2007); Morgan Stanley 6 at 95 percent; Bear Stearns 10 at 95 percent (also with only one before the crisis); Credit Suisse 7 at 99 percent (just 2 in the year s rst half); and UBS 16 at 99 percent (its rst exceptions since the 1998 Russian-LTCM crisis) That is, daily losses during a short three-month window exceeded theoretical losses much more often than theoretically assumed This shouldn t come as a big surprise The dependence on historical data and normalness was glowingly revealed as the insurmountable aw that it is.

As a result, they may not notice minor changes in their speech when they start lying People are unlikely to attempt to control their speech if they don t notice changes in their speech Second, the task of fabricating a convincing lie may be too dif cult, and, as a result, verbal cues to deceit may occur Even eloquent speakers may reveal verbal cues to deceit due to cognitive load For example, Clinton was asked in the Paula Jones case whether anyone else other than his attorneys told him that Monica Lewinsky had been served with a subpoena in that case His answer under oath was I don t think so This answer is in con ict with Vernon Jordan s testimony (Clinton s friend), as Jordan had said that he discussed Lewinsky s subpoena with the President.

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