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Lawyers could, and it is submitted should, investigate the use of risk assessment tools, say in negligence claims or inquiries into untoward incidents They should not just include questions about whether the measure chosen was appropriate for the decision in question, or whether it was properly used They should examine the process, the balancing exercise For example, was a proper attempt made to identify the possible bene ts of taking the risk, and their likelihood It is normal practice for an assessment tool to list a range of risk factors But does the tool imply that the different factors are of equal importance If so that is almost certainly going to involve an error Some factors are much more important, more predictive, than others are For example age, gender and number of prior offences are more predictive of violence than nature of delusions (Monahan et al, 2001).

There is therefore a perverse incentive for forces to nd ways of minimising the number of reports of crime that actually make it to the recorded crime statistics Forces now have too much vested interest in the consequences of recorded crime data for them to be allowed to continue to have the responsibility for collecting the information, which will be used for key performance indicator measurement, and benchmarking against other forces In July 2000 the United Kingdom Prime Minister, Tony Blair, called a meeting with a group of Chief Constables apparently because the crime rate was rising for the rst time in six years This was not helpful for a government, heading towards an election, that had pledged to be tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime (Independent, 4 December 1993).

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The tool may not tell its users, one way or the other, about the relative importance of the different items The author may not be satis ed that the science is suf ciently developed to allow for such differential rating (Hagell, 1998), but he or she is likely to know that explicitly or implicitly treating each item as of equal importance is improper, and thereby unprofessional Are the risk factors mutually exclusive For example one question, in a list designed to identify risk factors, might ask about past violence whilst another asks about past crimes But past violence is a past crime! The same cause for concern, past violence, is being double counted That is likely to be inappropriate The authors of the tool might have done it deliberately, as a means of weighting the importance of that topic But that may not be the case.

The next type of meter is the LED (Light Emitting Diode) Peak meter. LED meters are very fast, so they are generally used to indicate the peak values of the audio signal. LED meters generally have a single scale, measured in dB, running from approximately -40dB, up through zero, and on to +10 or +20dB.

Either way unsophisticated or mechanistic users of such a tool are liable to be caught out by a knowing lawyer alive to the possibility of such a problem Intuitively it would seem proper to conclude that a more detailed list of risk factors is going to be better, more predictive, than a short list It will appear better, more thorough But that simply does not follow A long list of risk factors may have more to do with demonstrating the author s imagination than identifying the things that, according to research or clinical experience, are the important predictors A few key risk factors may be suf cient, or get decision-makers as close as they are ever going to get (with current levels of knowledge) to an appropriate risk assessment More information may add little additional predictive power (McNeil and Binder, 1994).

Much was apparently made of the gap between the best and worst force clear-up rates, indicating little understanding of the misleading and crude nature of the statistics about which the Prime Minister was exercised This was despite the existence of government reports providing abundant evidence that the gures being discussed were unreliable Williamson responded to an article in The Economist (1 July 2000) analysing the rise in the crime rate by drawing attention to the different recording practices used by forces and argued that:.

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